Stunningly accurate forecasts on any topic
Augur’s prediction markets provide powerful predictive data – you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.
The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the “The Wisdom of the Crowd”. This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom – which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.
Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money – which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.
Decentralization: Augur’s secret weapon
Existing on a decentralized network gives Augur a unique edge over other prediction markets.
No central servers
Augur is a decentralized platform built on the Ethereum blockchain – which means no central servers that can be switched off.
Create your own markets
Using Augur, anyone, anywhere in the world can quickly and easily create a prediction market asking a question about anything. As a market creator you’ll provide some initial funding for the market and in return receive half of all trading fees collected during the lifetime of that market.
Augur’s fees are set by users, and are vastly lower compared to traditional trading and betting platforms.
In centralized markets, one person determines the final market outcomes – which means there can be mistakes or outright manipulation. With Augur, we’ll have thousands reporting on market outcomes using a one-of-a kind consensus based system and a unique token called REPutation. As a reporter, you’ll report on events every two months and, in return, receive half of all fees in the system multiplied by the percent of REP you own. The full scoop on REP
Safe, automated payments
All funds are stored in smart contracts – eliminating counterparty risk and allowing fast, automated payments to winning traders. Depositing and withdrawing funds are also completely automated using the blockchain. With no human intervention required, there’s no human error.